UK diesel has spent the weekend above the psychological £2-a-litre line, even after a frantic round of G7 diplomacy that pulled Donald Trump back from threatening a US diesel export ban. For taxi and private hire drivers, the politics matter less than the pump: every empty mile still burns dear fuel before a fare starts the meter.
Where the pumps sit now
On Friday 2 October the RAC said the national average diesel price hit a record 200.01p a litre — the first time the average has cleared £2 — with unleaded at 174.71p. A typical 55-litre diesel fill was £110.01, almost £32 more than at the start of the US/Iran war on 28 February; a petrol tank was £96.09.
Through Saturday and Sunday the needle barely moved. Daily Fuel Finder averages put diesel at about 200.0p on 3 October and 200.1p on 4 October, with unleaded around 174.8p then 174.9p. Live trackers such as Pennr were still showing diesel near 200.1p and petrol near 175p into Sunday evening. In other words: the G7 stockpile deal calmed the export-ban scare; it has not yet cut the cost of filling a TX or a PHV.
Drivers can check today’s local picture on TaxiFeed’s live fuel prices page.
Why diesel hurts Britain more than petrol
The UK still makes more than enough petrol in its four refineries, but not enough diesel. BBC analysis notes that well over half of UK diesel is imported, with about 31% of those imports coming from the United States and a large share from the Netherlands and Belgium. That is why a Washington threat to bottle up American barrels lands harder in London and Leeds than a crude-oil headline alone.
Behind the spike sits the same Middle East shock that has defined 2026: war involving Iran, Strait of Hormuz disruption, tighter Russian product flows and thin global refining margins. Haulage, farming and taxis cannot simply switch fuel overnight. Diesel demand is sticky; supply is not.
Trump’s ban threat — and Europe’s “fully reject”
With US midterms looming and American diesel also at painful highs, Trump floated restricting US diesel exports to push domestic prices down. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressed Europe to release strategic stocks “immediately”, arguing American farmers and truckers should not carry the global shortage alone.
Brussels pushed back hard. European Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said the EU “fully reject" any ban on diesel, warning it would undermine trust in the US as a reliable partner. Trade chief Maros Sefcovic had already called the economic consequences “dramatic”.
Britain joined the emergency circuit. Energy minister Martin McCluskey was on calls with European counterparts; transport minister Keir Mather told broadcasters supply was “diverse” and “robust” and that the fuel-duty freeze remained in place. Chancellor John Healey said the threat was being taken “very seriously”, while officials stressed there was no shortage scare — just higher prices.
The G7 deal that took the ban off the table
On Friday, G7 leaders — with Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband standing in for the UK — agreed a coordinated International Energy Agency release of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months, including a “frontloaded substantial diesel release” in the first 20 days. They also committed to refrain from export restrictions on energy between G7 countries.
Trump then said Europe would make a “major world contribution”, that the US would too, and that an export ban was “never really on the table” — after days in which he and his Treasury had kept the idea very much alive. Markets heard the de-escalation; forecourts, so far, have not.
What the trade is saying
For cabbies the arithmetic is brutal. The RAC puts a 45mpg diesel at about 20p a mile at 200.01p/litre — £2,020 a year for 10,000 miles before insurance and licensing. Real taxi work is dearer still: urban black cabs and high-mileage PHVs burn more per mile in traffic, and unpaid runs to ranks, airports and the next job burn fuel with no fare attached.
Hackney drivers cannot rewrite the meter overnight: council fare tables lag real costs. Private hire faces a different squeeze — platforms can move prices, but driver share and competition often leave fuel risk with the person holding the key. GMB has already written to Uber, Bolt and Deliveroo urging support through the Iran-linked fuel spike, and later said UK operators had not matched relief offered elsewhere. That demand looks sharper, not softer, with diesel over £2.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams called £2 a threshold “no-one wanted to cross” and urged government to ease the burden further through fuel duty or VAT at the autumn Budget. Industry voices also warn that if US export talk returns, UK import dependence means the next scare will hit diesel fleets first.
What to watch next
The next fortnight is about whether the G7’s front-loaded diesel release shows up in wholesale prices — and then, with the usual lag, on UK forecourts. Watch three things: the US sticking to “no export ban”; how much UK and EU stock actually reaches the market; and whether licensing authorities reopen fuel surcharges or mid-year fare talks as drivers absorb another expensive weekend.
Until then, £2 diesel is not a headline for the trade. It is the cost of turning the key.